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The disparity between credit growth and deposit growth is creating a fierce underlying deposit raising race among commercial banks.

HÀ NỘI — While the capital market is underdeveloped, the banking system is burdened with the responsibility of supplying capital beyond its actual capacity, causing a fierce deposit raising competition and putting heavy pressure on the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV)’s monetary policy management.

Việt Nam’s economic development strategy for the 2026-2030 period sets an ambitious GDP growth target of 10 per cent or more per year.

According to detailed calculations from BIDV Research, to achieve this goal, the required average investment capital will be around US$250-260 billion per year. Looking further ahead to 2045, the economy's capital needs could reach $500 billion per year.

However, the Vietnamese economy still relies heavily on bank credit, with this channel consistently accounting for 50-60 per cent of the total capital supply.

Meanwhile, long-term capital channels such as the corporate bond market only account for a modest 3-6 per cent, and the stock market contributes about 10-18 per cent.

Phạm Xuân Hòe, former deputy director of the Institute of Banking Strategy, said that banks are simultaneously burdened with three heavy responsibilities: acting as payment intermediaries, providing short-term capital and financing medium- and long-term capital.

The consequence of this situation is that the balance sheets of the banking system are constantly overloaded, he noted.

Currently, about 80 per cent of deposits in Việt Nam have maturities of less than 12 months, while medium- and long-term loans once accounted for up to 47 per cent of total outstanding loans.

According to SBV data, as of June 15, credit growth reached 6.35 per cent, but deposit growth only reached 4.3 per cent. This 2 per cent gap forces banks to attract deposits in a variety of ways.

The disparity between credit and deposit growth is creating a fierce race to raise deposits among commercial banks. Meanwhile, depositors are easily misled by the varying interest rates offered.

While the listed interest rate on banks’ websites for a six-month term is only around 6 per cent per year, customers can actually receive 9-10 per cent per year through special conditions related to balances or certificates of deposit.

At one private bank, customers depositing VNĐ200 million or more are offered an interest rate of 8.5 per cent per year. Some even offered 9 per cent for deposits of VNĐ1 billion or more.

Chairman of Vietcombank’s board of directors Nguyễn Thanh Tùng pointed out the obstacles related to the imbalance of capital sources. According to Vietcombank's calculations, to achieve 10 per cent GDP growth, the investment rate needs to reach 40 per cent of GDP, but the average domestic savings rate is currently only 36.5 per cent.

If the growth of unofficial sectors is excluded, the accumulated domestic capital deficit is even more severe.

Tùng confirmed that his bank always adheres to directives on interest rate levels, so raised capital is currently insufficient to meet growth needs.

Although Vietcombank's loan-to-deposit ratio is below 70 per cent, a safe level compared to the SBV's 80 per cent ceiling, the bank still warned that there will not be enough capital for large projects in the future.

Tùng proposed raising capital from external sources by allowing the Ministry of Finance to issue international bonds to leverage national prestige and obtain the best possible interest rates.

He also expressed a desire for the capital market, especially the corporate bond market, to develop more rapidly.

The current size of Việt Nam's corporate bond market is only equivalent to about 10 per cent of GDP, significantly lower than other countries in the region such as Thailand and Malaysia.

SBV Governor Phạm Đức Ấn admitted that pressure to raise capital is making the central bank’s interest rate management difficult.

When capital demand is high but raised capital is limited, rising deposit interest rates will cause higher lending interest rates, directly impacting enterprises. To alleviate this pressure, the SBV is working to prevent commercial banks from engaging in extreme competition for capital mobilisation.

As for long-term solutions, the governor said the SBV is studying expanding the scope of eligible foreign currency loans serving investment purposes, especially for import businesses.

In addition, the amended Law on Credit Institutions allows commercial banks to manage collateral assets for businesses issuing bonds. This is expected to be a breakthrough, because many investors are currently hesitant about the collateral assets of corporate bonds, such as real estate, or assets formed from borrowed capital.

Only when banks participate in this asset management process can the bond market develop enough to alleviate the burden of medium- and long-term capital requirements in the banking system.

Online retail sales across major e-commerce platforms grew by more than 40% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, or three times the pace of Vietnam's overall retail sector growth.

A report by e-commerce data analytics platform Metric said the four major multi-category online marketplaces (Shopee, TikTok Shop, Lazada, and Tiki) saw gross merchandise value (GMV) grow by 38-52%.

Together, they hosted 613,900 stores, whose GMV was VND291.6 trillion (US$11.07 billion) and who sold more than 2.18 billion products, up 41% and 12%.

That means consumers spent an average of VND1.6 trillion a day to buy 12 million products, with beauty, fashion, home and living, groceries and food, and household appliances accounting for the largest share.

Popular brands have benefited from the rise of e-commerce. Audio equipment retailer JBL, for example, said its second-quarter sales on Lazada doubled from a year earlier.

A JBL Vietnam spokesperson said online channels not only generate high traffic and help the brand reach more customers, but also provide an effective platform for promotional campaigns targeting younger consumers.

Online accounted for 10% of overall retail sales, which exceeded VND2.94 quadrillion during the half, up 12.5% from a year earlier, according to data from the General Statistics Office.

Online retail’s rapid expansion has been partly attributed to the effect of livestreaming. A recent online survey by market researcher Q&Me found that livestream shopping has become the primary purchasing channel for online shoppers, accounting for 67% of their online spending.

Speaking at a seminar last month, Ta Van Thanh, CEO of footwear retailer Nesty, said more than half of the brand's sales on TikTok Shop comes from livestreaming. The company plans to expand its partnerships with content creators this year, he added.

Discounts also encourage many consumers to choose online shopping over brick-and-mortar stores. Q&Me said 82% of surveyed consumers said discounts were a key factor influencing their purchase decisions, as livestream-exclusive vouchers and limited-time promotions encouraged immediate buying decisions.

During Lazada's June 6 promotional campaign, its GMV rose 276% from an average day.

Delivery speed also plays a key role. Shopee said merchants offering express delivery within one hour or four hours recorded order growth of up to 130% compared with sellers who did not.

The platform said it would continue investing in operational infrastructure and expanding logistics partnerships to reduce delivery times.

But both Shopee and TikTok Shop have raised their fees for merchants, forcing some sellers to hike their prices in turn. Following sellers’ complaints, the National Competition Commission has requested the platforms to make a report on the impact of their higher fees.

Tran Lam, an online sales training expert, said the market is gradually moving beyond the "cash-burning" phase, which means sellers now need to prioritize improving business efficiency.

"Costs continue to rise on the platforms but consumers still expect lower prices, faster delivery, and more promotions."

Content creator Hoang Van Khoa, better known as PewPew on social media, said building a multi-platform ecosystem – developing each piece of content into multiple formats and distributing it across channels ranging from Shopee to Facebook and Instagram – has been key to his success.

"Through this approach, my content now consistently attracts more than 30 million views each month."

Metric advised merchants to develop product portfolios based on search trend data, price segmentation, and seasonal demand rather than intuition.

It also recommended improving product quality, images, and information while combining advertising, promotions, livestreaming, affiliate marketing, and social media content to broaden customer reach.

Sarah Nguyen, commercial director of Shopee Vietnam, said e-commerce is entering a new phase of development as consumers increasingly expect better experiences, greater personalization, and higher levels of trust.

She said this would require platforms to invest more in artificial intelligence, infrastructure, and solutions that deliver seamless shopping experiences while expanding merchants' access to buyers.

Vietnam aims to increase the value of foreign investors' holdings in its capital and securities markets to around 15% of GDP by 2030 under a comprehensive financial market reform plan approved by the government, as the country seeks to attract more international capital and deepen its capital markets.

Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Van Thang signed Decision No. 1413 on July 27 approving the "Comprehensive reform of Vietnam's financial market in support of sustained high economic growth through 2045."

The reform blueprint seeks to develop a modern, market-oriented financial system that is fully integrated with global markets. The government said the financial market should evolve into a balanced ecosystem capable of mobilizing and allocating capital efficiently while serving as a key provider of medium- and long-term funding to support sustainable high economic growth.

Under the plan, Vietnam aims to raise the value of foreign investment assets in its capital and securities markets to approximately 15% of GDP by 2030. The government also targets net assets under management by securities investment funds at 5% of GDP, while assets managed by pension funds are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 11.5% between 2026 and 2030.

By 2045, the government expects the stock market to consolidate its role as the country's primary source of medium- and long-term financing. The banking system is expected to operate under modern, prudent standards, while the insurance sector is projected to develop sustainably. Vietnam also aims to establish its International Financial Center as a key regional hub linking capital flows, financial institutions and cross-border financial services.

As part of the market infrastructure roadmap, the government plans to complete a modern, self-reliant national payment infrastructure by 2028, enabling bilateral and multilateral payment connectivity with regional and global partners.

Vietnam also plans to introduce a central counterparty (CCP) clearing mechanism for the cash equity market in 2027. Between 2030 and 2035, authorities aim to develop and operate a shared financial market database to strengthen regulatory oversight and market supervision.

Eight priority reform areas

The reform plan outlines eight strategic priorities.

The first focuses on strengthening the legal and regulatory framework by reviewing and amending sector-specific legislation, studying the introduction of a law governing financial market supervision, and transitioning from compliance-based oversight to a risk-based supervisory model.

The second aims to diversify financial products by expanding green finance, including green equities, green corporate bonds, ESG investment funds, and green stock indices.

The government also plans to broaden the range of government bond products, including green bonds, floating-rate bonds and inflation-linked securities, while directing credit toward productive sectors, small and medium-sized enterprises, green finance and financial inclusion. The plan also calls for the effective regulation and operation of tokenized asset markets.

The third priority is to broaden the institutional investor base by expanding pension, infrastructure, real estate and venture capital funds, while simplifying account opening procedures, foreign exchange conversions and profit repatriation for foreign investors.

The fourth focuses on strengthening financial intermediaries by developing larger commercial banks, encouraging systemically important lenders to move toward Basel III standards from 2026, resolving non-performing loans, and addressing cross-ownership within the banking sector.

The fifth priority seeks to modernize financial infrastructure through upgrades to the national interbank payment system, payment switching platforms, and the digital transformation of securities trading and settlement systems.

The sixth emphasizes stronger macroeconomic management through closer coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, maintaining inflation control and macroeconomic stability, while implementing measures to improve oversight of the domestic gold market.

The seventh aims to accelerate Vietnam's stock market upgrade and advance the development of the country's International Financial Center.

The eighth focuses on developing a highly skilled workforce through specialized financial education programs at leading universities, with greater emphasis on expertise in artificial intelligence for finance, cybersecurity, big data, and quantitative risk management.