Despite the apartment absorption rate exceeding 99% in Ho Chi Minh City, a growing imbalance between high-end supply and demand for affordable homes continues to price many buyers out of the market, said Le Huyen Trang, country head at real estate consultancy JLL Vietnam.
Apartment prices rise 10%, affordable housing remains scarce
According to JLL's data for the first half of 2026, about 3,000 new apartment units were offered for sale in HCMC, bringing the cumulative housing supply to nearly 342,300 units.
The eastern part of the city continued to lead the market, accounting for 70% of new supply, with 43.2% of the new supply classified as high-end.
The market recorded around 3,600 successful transactions, with the cumulative absorption rate remaining above 99.3%. The average primary selling price in the second quarter of 2026 reached VND98.1 million ($3,735) per square meter, representing a 10.5% increase compared to the same period last year.
According to Trang, these figures indicate that the market is not lacking demand but rather products that match the affordability of the majority of buyers. New supply continues to be heavily concentrated on the premium segment, while most genuine homebuyers are seeking mid-range or more affordable housing options.
This has resulted in a clear mismatch between supply and demand. Housing prices continue to rise despite higher interest rates, largely because input costs, particularly land recovery costs, now account for an increasingly significant share of total project development expenses.
Nevertheless, the JLL Vietnam leader noted that buyer sentiment has changed considerably. While many buyers previously entered the market expecting rapid price appreciation, financially capable purchasers are now becoming more selective, prioritizing projects with clear legal status, strong infrastructure connectivity, high construction quality, and long-term value retention.
As a result, real estate is increasingly viewed as a safe-haven asset for capital preservation rather than a vehicle for short-term speculation.
Investors changing preferences
On the other hand, continuously rising home prices are prompting more young families to consider long-term renting as a viable housing option. According to Trang, this trend could create significant opportunities for the development of a professional rental housing market, particularly if supportive policies on land use and development costs are introduced.
Le Thi Huyen Trang, country head at JLL Vietnam, at a press briefing on July 8, 2026. Photo by The Investor/Dang Kiet.
One potential solution is a policy-supported rental housing model similar to the R4 land scheme of China, where land designated for rental housing is priced significantly lower than land allocated for permanent homeownership. This helps reduce development costs and enables developers to provide more affordable housing.
Looking ahead, Trang believed that infrastructure expansion and transit-oriented development (TOD) will be key to addressing HCMC’s housing challenges. As metro lines, Ring Road 3, and major regional transport corridors are completed, the city's urban footprint will expand beyond the traditional downtown core, creating new growth centers.
According to her, future market growth will no longer be concentrated solely in the traditional central areas but will increasingly spread to those supported by metro networks, logistics corridors, and large-scale regional infrastructure projects. This is expected to enhance the liquidity of suburban residential developments, which generally offer more affordable pricing.
"For investors and developers, this is the time to look beyond the boundaries of the city center and seize long-term growth opportunities across Ho Chi Minh City and the Southern Key Economic Region," she concluded.
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