Vietnam’s gross domestic product expanded by 9.95 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, bringing nine-month economic growth to 9.01 percent.

The strong performance reinforces positive assessments from international financial institutions regarding Vietnam’s economic outlook, with forecasts indicating that growth momentum will persist through the final months of the year.

According to the National Statistics Office under the Ministry of Finance, Q3 GDP growth of 9.95 percent outpaced the 8.15 percent recorded in Q1 and 8.81 percent in Q2. For the first nine months of 2026, the industry and construction sector served as the primary growth driver, expanding by 11.21 percent and contributing nearly half of total value added. The services sector grew by 8.69 percent, while agriculture, forestry, and fisheries expanded by 4.02 percent.

While global economic growth projections from the OECD, UN, and IMF remain subdued compared to 2025 levels, Southeast Asia’s growth outlook remains favorable. Within the ASEAN region, ADB projects average growth at 4.7 percent and AMRO at 4.8 percent.

Vietnam leads all regional peers with projected 2026 growth between 7.5 percent and 8.2 percent, significantly higher than Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, and Thailand.

Major international financial institutions have repeatedly upgraded their full-year forecasts for Vietnam.

AMRO projects 2026 growth at 7.5 percent, while the ADB raised its forecast to 7.8 percent for 2026 and 7.6 percent for 2027. The IMF increased its projection to 8.2 percent, UOB upgraded its outlook to 8.5 percent citing strong AI-driven technology momentum, and Standard Chartered issued the highest forecast at 9.5 percent.

Mr. Tim Leelahaphan, Senior Economist for Thailand and Vietnam at Standard Chartered Bank, noted that the Vietnamese economy continues to demonstrate strong resilience, underpinned by robust domestic demand, active trade, and solid industrial manufacturing performance that should sustain momentum through year-end.

Growth momentum continues to benefit from expanding manufacturing, steady foreign direct investment inflows, and strong global demand for technology products linked to supply chain relocations and artificial intelligence.

However, international analysts emphasize that due to its high level of trade openness, Vietnam must remain vigilant against external risks including geopolitical tensions, global trade volatility, and demand shifts across major export markets.

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Việt Nam mposted a trade surplus of $1.27 billion in September, with total trade of goods reaching $117.69 billion, up 7.3 per cent from August and 42.4 per cent from the same month last year.

HÀ NỘI — Việt Nam returned to a goods trade surplus in September after nine consecutive months of deficit, but remained in a US$19.42 billion deficit for the first nine months of this year, the National Statistics Office (NSO) said in its socio-economic report on October 3.

The country posted a trade surplus of $1.27 billion in September, with total trade of goods reaching $117.69 billion, up 7.3 per cent from August and 42.4 per cent from the same month last year.

The September surplus followed a period of sustained trade deficits and offered some improvement in the trade balance, but the NSO said the accumulated deficit remained a matter to watch.

Exports in September reached $59.48 billion, up 8.5 per cent from August and 39.1 per cent from a year earlier. Exports by domestic companies rose 9.9 per cent year-on-year, while those by foreign-invested companies, including crude oil, surged 46.5 per cent.

Imports reached $58.21 billion in September, up 6 per cent from the previous month and 45.8 per cent from a year earlier. Imports by domestic companies increased 22.1 per cent, while those by foreign-invested companies rose 54.6 per cent.

During January - September, Việt Nam's total trade of goods reached $888.02 billion, up 30.4 per cent from the same period last year. Exports rose 24.5 per cent to $434.30 billion, while imports jumped 36.7 per cent to $453.72 billion.

The faster growth in imports has been driven largely by production inputs, the NSO said, citing statistics that in the nine-month period, production materials accounted for 94.1 per cent of total imports, worth $426.92 billion.

Foreign-invested companies continued to dominate exports, accounting for $350.41 billion, or 80.7 per cent of the nine-month total, up 29.4 per cent year-on-year. Domestic businesses exported $83.89 billion, up 7.5 per cent.

The NSO's report pointed out that 35 export products generated more than $1 billion each, together accounting for 94.3 per cent of total exports. Of them, seven products exceeded $10 billion and accounted for 70.7 per cent.

The US remained Việt Nam's largest export market, with a value of $140 billion in the nine-month period. Việt Nam ran a $122.62 billion trade surplus with the US, up 23.8 per cent from a year earlier.

China remained Việt Nam's largest import market, with a value of $187.34 billion and a trade deficit of $121.48 billion, up 43 per cent over the same period last year.

Domestic companies recorded a $34.28 billion trade deficit in the first nine months, while the foreign-invested sector, including crude oil, posted a surplus of $14.86 billion.

The NSO said the trade deficit must continue to be watched, particularly the ability to turn imported raw materials and components into higher-value exports. It has also highlighted the need to strengthen supporting industries, raise domestic localisation rates and improve domestic production capacity to make the trade balance more sustainable.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) commitments in Vietnam surged 76.4% in the first nine months of 2026, reflecting strong investor interest, but the bigger question is what is driving the inflows and whether the country can turn them into higher-value growth.

Vietnam attracted US$50.36 billion in registered foreign direct investment between Jan. – Sept. 2026, representing a year-on-year rise of 76.4%, according to the National Statistics Office.

The headline figure is striking. But behind the surge is a more complex story: investors are not simply putting more money into Vietnam; their priorities are also changing as global manufacturers restructure supply chains and competition for new investment intensifies across Southeast Asia.

Of the total registered FDI, newly registered capital reached US$29.24 billion from 3,108 projects, with capital more than doubling from the same period last year. Manufacturing and processing remained the largest recipient, accounting for US$13.38 billion, or 45.8% of newly registered capital.

Transport and storage followed with US$5.14 billion, while additional capital injected into existing projects reached US$14.15 billion, up 25.1%.

The composition of the flows suggests that Vietnam’s attraction to foreign investors is increasingly linked to its role in production and supply-chain networks rather than simply its traditional advantage of relatively low costs.

Supply-chain diversification is a key driver

One of the clearest explanations comes from the ongoing restructuring of global supply chains.

At the Vietnam Industrial Property Forum 2026 held in Ho Chi Minh City in September 2026, Trang Le, country head and head of Research and Consulting at JLL Vietnam, said international companies were continuing to diversify their supply chains to reduce concentration risks and strengthen resilience.

This trend is creating additional demand for manufacturing and logistics facilities in Vietnam, she said, with the country's northern region increasingly attracting technology-intensive investment and higher-value supply chains, while the south has developed stronger advantages in logistics, connectivity and access to the domestic market.

The shift is also changing the type of industries looking at Vietnam. Demand is expanding beyond traditional manufacturing to electronics, electrical equipment, high technology, automobiles, data centres, pharmaceuticals, research and development and modern logistics.

That helps explain why manufacturing and processing accounted for more than half of newly registered and additional FDI combined during the first nine months.

Vietnam's investment environment is also changing

Supply-chain shifts alone, however, do not explain the broader investment momentum. Assoc. Prof. Dr Ho Sy Hung, president of the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI), said recent institutional reforms had opened up greater room for businesses and improved the business environment.

Speaking at the Vietnam New Economy Forum 2026 in Hanoi on October 3, he highlighted reforms under the 2025 Investment Law, including the expansion of a “green lane” mechanism and a shift from pre-inspection to post-inspection, which he said had significantly shortened the time needed to prepare investment projects.

This point is particularly relevant to FDI because investors consider not only where production costs are competitive, but also how quickly a project can obtain approvals, secure infrastructure and begin operations.

JLL Vietnam leader Trang Le has similarly identified implementation speed, infrastructure and land availability, and the quality of the workforce as three important factors influencing investors’ decisions.

In other words, Vietnam’s competitiveness is gradually moving beyond the question of whether the country is cheaper than other destinations. Investors are increasingly asking whether Vietnam can provide the infrastructure, skilled labour and business environment required for sophisticated production.

A strong headline figure, but not the whole story

There is also an important distinction between registered and realised FDI. While registered FDI jumped 76.4%, realised FDI reached an estimated US$21.07 billion in the first nine months, up 12.1% year on year. The figure was nevertheless the highest for the first nine months in five years.

Manufacturing and processing accounted for US$17.4 billion, or 82.6% of realised FDI, indicating that the bulk of foreign capital actually being deployed is closely tied to productive activities. This gap between commitments and realised investment matters.

A surge in registered capital signals strong investor interest and creates a pipeline of potential projects. But the economic impact ultimately depends on whether those commitments are implemented, how quickly projects become operational and how deeply foreign-invested companies connect with the domestic economy.

That may be the next challenge for Vietnam. The country has benefited from the global diversification of production, but competition is becoming tougher. At the Vietnam Industrial Property Forum, Trang Le noted that Vietnam’s share of regional manufacturing FDI had risen sharply during the 2020-2021 period but has since fallen back below 5%, with Indonesia and Thailand strengthening their positions.

This suggests that strong FDI growth in Vietnam should not be interpreted as a guarantee of continued dominance in the regional investment race. Instead, the latest figures may mark a new stage in the competition, one in which the ability to absorb and retain high-value investment becomes as important as the ability to attract it.

For Vietnam, that means improving the speed and predictability of investment procedures, strengthening infrastructure and logistics, developing a higher-skilled workforce and building stronger links between foreign-invested companies and domestic suppliers.

The 76.4% rise in registered FDI therefore tells only part of the story. The more important question is whether the latest wave of foreign investment can help Vietnam move further up global value chains, from being a competitive production base to becoming a deeper ecosystem for technology, innovation and higher-value manufacturing.