VOV.VN - Amid escalating geopolitical tensions and mounting volatility in global energy markets, experts are calling for the rapid development of national strategic petroleum reserves as a necessary, practical and achievable solution to safeguard national energy security and stabilise supply.

According to industry estimates, the construction cost of a strategic petroleum storage facility with a capacity of around one million tonnes is approximately US$400 million. Such projects could be implemented through public-private partnerships (PPP) or by mobilising foreign investment, offering both flexibility and financial feasibility.

Preventing supply disruptions

Vietnam’s fuel demand currently stands at around 25–26 million tonnes per year. Domestic refineries, including Nghi Son and Dung Quat, meet roughly 70% of total demand, leaving the country dependent on imports to fill the gap.

In addition, Vietnam still relies heavily on imported crude oil for refining, with approximately 14 million tonnes sourced annually as domestic output continues to decline, now at around 8 million tonnes per year.

According to energy expert Le Minh, a member of the scientific council of the Vietnam Energy Association, the Dung Quat refinery has demonstrated operational flexibility by exceeding its designed capacity and adapting to various crude oil sources.

However, the Nghi Son refinery, with a capacity of 10 million tonnes per year, faces significant risks due to its heavy reliance on crude imports from Kuwait via the Strait of Hormuz, a region increasingly affected by tensions linked to the Israel–Iran conflict. Current supply is expected to last only until the end of April 2026, raising the possibility of production disruptions from May.

“If crude oil supply for Nghi Son is interrupted and global tensions escalate further, Vietnam may be forced to import up to 14 million tonnes of petroleum products, equivalent to nearly 60% of domestic demand,” Minh warned.

Current fuel reserves remain limited. Strategic reserves account for only about seven days of supply, while refineries and distributors maintain inventories ranging from 20 to 30 days. At the same time, domestic natural gas output has declined to below seven billion cubic metres per year.

“These realities highlight the urgent need to strengthen national energy resilience through expanded storage capacity,” Minh added.

A feasible strategic solution

At a recent government meeting on energy security, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh urged relevant ministries to work with international partners to accelerate the development of a strategic petroleum reserve facility at Nghi Son.

Experts believe that such a move is both necessary and achievable, noting that several countries in the region, including Japan, the Republic of Korea and Thailand, have already established large-scale strategic reserves.

“With current market uncertainties, Vietnam should quickly develop optimal scenarios and move forward with feasibility studies, investment planning and resource mobilization,” Minh said.

He emphasised that building one or two integrated national petroleum storage hubs for both crude oil and refined products would help ensure stable supply, mitigate risks of disruption and support long-term economic growth.

The development of strategic reserves is also expected to play a key role in stabilising fuel prices, reducing dependence on external supply and enhancing Vietnam’s attractiveness to foreign investors.

In the longer term, such infrastructure would form a critical pillar of national energy security, enabling the country to better respond to global shocks while maintaining sustainable economic development.

Analysts of the ACB Securities Company (ACBS) said the loosening will be made if macroeconomic conditions are favourable.

HÀ NỘI — The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) could loosen monetary policy in the second half of 2026 to help meet the Government’s double-digit growth target, experts have forecast.

Analysts from ACB Securities Company (ACBS) said in a macroeconomic report released this week that any loosening would depend on favourable macroeconomic conditions. They warned, however, that easing policy could push inflation and exchange rates higher than last year.

“If the nation’s foreign exchange reserves decline sharply, the cost of capital and the US dollar index (DXY) will remain high similar to 2022. Potential risks in the banking system, however, may be better controlled as liquidity pressure from the real estate market is eliminated,” the analysts said.

For 2026, the SBV has set a credit growth target of 15 per cent, lower than the 19 per cent rate in 2025. This cautious approach aligns with the Government’s strategy of reducing reliance on bank credit and curbing real estate speculation.

ACBS analysts also pointed to ongoing risks in the money market, including high oil prices and liquidity pressure. Global inflationary pressures, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions such as the conflict in Iran, could limit the SBV’s ability to cut interest rates. Many central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of Korea, have expressed concern over persistent inflation and high oil prices. The Fed’s slower-than-expected interest rate reductions in particular will constrain monetary policy easing in Việt Nam.

Domestically, interest rates continued to rise in February amid a gap between credit demand and deposit mobilisation. The six-month deposit rate at the four largest banks has climbed 0.7 percentage points since the start of the year, while lending rates for real estate currently hover around 10-14 per cent.

Analysts expect this trend to persist in the first half of 2026 until the exchange rate stabilises and geopolitical tensions ease, improving the flow of foreign currency into the domestic market.

Data from the SBV showed credit growth reached 1.4 per cent by the end of February compared with December 2025, outpacing deposit growth, which rose just 0.36 per cent. Liquidity pressures pushed interbank interest rates close to 20 per cent at times.

The DXY rose 1.6 per cent in the first two months of 2026, signalling strong demand for the US dollar. Analysts said close monitoring of exchange rates and banking liquidity will be essential to gauge interest rate volatility.

“A favourable exchange rate environment and abundant liquidity will be a suitable foundation for the SBV to expand its credit growth target in the second half of 2026,” ACBS analysts said.

VOV.VN - The Ministry of Finance has proposed extending the current zero-tax policy on several fuel-related taxes until June 30, 2026, in a bid to cope with volatile global energy markets and support domestic economic stability.

Previously, under Decision No. 482/QD-TTg issued by the Prime Minister, environmental protection tax on petrol (excluding ethanol), diesel and aviation fuel was reduced to zero from midnight on March 26 through April 15, 2026. At the same time, the special consumption tax on petrol was also cut to zero.

The sharp reduction in taxes has had an immediate impact on domestic fuel prices. During the price adjustment on March 26, E5RON92 fell to VND23,326 per litre, RON95-III to VND24,332 per litre, while diesel prices also declined significantly to VND35,440 VND per litre.

However, the Ministry of Finance noted that these measures are only short-term and urgent solutions. Amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East, the global energy market is facing significant pressure. The International Energy Agency has warned that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy transit route, have created a serious bottleneck, pushing crude oil prices above US$100 per barrel.

Such volatility is not only driving up fuel prices but also contributing to broader inflationary pressures, higher import costs and slower global economic growth. Analysts believe the scale of the impact could surpass previous oil shocks in the 1970s or the recent energy crisis linked to the Russia–Ukraine conflict.

Domestically, fuel supply is also under strain. Feedstock supply for the Nghi Son Refinery, which accounts for around 40% of Vietnam’s fuel supply, has been disrupted. Meanwhile, about 30% of imported fuel from Asian markets has been affected by export restrictions, with several import orders in March 2026 reportedly cancelled.

In this context, the Ministry of Finance has proposed maintaining the current zero-tax rates from April 15 through June 30. The extension is expected to prolong the effectiveness of support measures, helping stabilise the market and contain inflation.

According to experts, maintaining the zero-tax policy could reduce state budget revenue by approximately VND7.2 trillion per month. Nevertheless, the policy is expected to lower production and logistics costs, thereby reducing product prices, improving business competitiveness and supporting short-term economic growth.

For consumers, lower fuel taxes would directly reduce transportation and living costs, while also helping ease prices of goods and services. This is expected to support purchasing power and stabilise livelihoods amid ongoing cost pressures.

The government also indicated that the duration of the policy could be adjusted flexibly if necessary to meet socio-economic development goals and maintain market stability.