Actual demand and value will be the determining factors in Vietnam’s property market as supply changes for the better.

Speaking at the launch of the Vietnam Real Estate Market Report for the second quarter and first half of 2026, Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam National Real Estate Association (VNREA) and Chairman of the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS), said that as housing supply gradually improves the country’s property market is shifting away from speculation and short-term price expectations toward genuine housing demand and long-term value.

The market is also undergoing a necessary consolidation, he continued. Developers with strong financial resources, sizable land banks, clear legal standing, and proven execution capabilities are continuing to expand, while those with weaker fundamentals are scaling back or exiting the market. This adjustment will support a healthier, more transparent, and more sustainable market while encouraging higher product quality and stronger project delivery.

Prices remain high

Ms. Pham Thi Mien, Deputy Director of the Vietnam Real Estate Market Research Institute at the Vietnam Association of Real Estate Brokers (VARS IRE), said the housing market continued to exhibit encouraging signs of recovery in the first half of the year as supply gradually improved following the resolution of legal bottlenecks, approval of new projects, and faster implementation of large-scale developments.

However, the volume of homes actually launched remained below the number of projects eligible for sale. Many developers continued to take a cautious approach by delaying launches or extending marketing and reservation campaigns to gauge market demand, while investors became increasingly selective in allocating capital.

According to VARS IRE, nearly 34,000 new residential units were launched nationwide in the second quarter of 2026, down about 10 per cent from the previous quarter and 8 per cent from a year prior. Despite improving supply, the imbalance between supply and demand remained largely unresolved, with most new launches continuing to target the upper end of the market.

Apartments dominated new supply in the first half, accounting for around 70 per cent of all launches, while landed homes and residential land made up the remaining 30 per cent, or about 22,000 units. Within the apartment segment, high-end units represented about 45 per cent of supply, up 6 percentage points year-on-year, while luxury and ultra-luxury apartments rose to 33 per cent, up 5 percentage points. Mid-range apartments fell to just 22 per cent, down 11 percentage points from a year earlier.

VARS IRE data showed that primary housing prices remained elevated despite increasing supply. Average primary apartment prices reached about VND80 million ($3,077) per sq m in the second quarter, up 10 per cent against 2025. Prices for villas, townhouses, and shophouses increased by around 5 per cent compared with the end of last year.

Among major markets, Hanoi continued to record the highest average primary apartment price, at about VND123 million ($4,731) per sq m, little changed from the previous quarter. Da Nang maintained average primary prices of about VND91 million ($3,500) per sq m as new supply continued to focus on higher-quality developments.

Ms. Mien said rising primary housing prices were driven mainly by higher development costs, including land acquisition, financing, and construction, along with stricter quality standards that have encouraged developers to position projects in more premium segments. Meanwhile, the secondary market has entered a period of greater stability and clearer segmentation.

Within the apartment market, price adjustments have been most evident in projects that experienced significant price increases, particularly luxury developments and projects by some foreign developers entering the handover stage, when buyers are required to make final payments.

For landed houses and detached homes, prices softened in certain inner-city districts affected by planning changes or previous speculative increases. In contrast, many suburban areas, particularly in southern Vietnam, where infrastructure projects have moved into implementation, recorded price gains of around 5-10 per cent compared with the end of 2025.

Value over momentum

According to VARS IRE, approximately 23,600 successful primary market transactions were recorded nationwide during the second quarter, bringing the total for the first half of 2026 to around 48,000. Of newly-launched projects, around 19,600 units were sold during the second quarter, representing an absorption rate of roughly 58 per cent. Around 43,000 newly-launched units were sold, maintaining an average absorption rate of about 58 per cent.

Apartments remained the primary driver of market liquidity, accounting for 73 per cent of all transactions. Sales were concentrated mainly in legally-completed projects launched in 2025.

“These figures show that demand remains resilient, but capital is no longer spread evenly across the market,” Ms. Mien said. “Rather, it is clearly shifting from chasing market momentum to pursuing long-term value, with investors prioritizing projects that offer legal certainty, construction progress, operational potential, and strong liquidity.”

Overall, VARS IRE said changing buyer behavior is establishing a new framework for assessing real estate value, where product quality, living standards, infrastructure connectivity, and long-term usability have become the defining factors.

As owner-occupier demand becomes the market’s primary driver, projects offering transparent legal status, strong construction quality, practical usability, and healthy liquidity are expected to maintain a competitive advantage and support a more stable growth cycle in the years ahead.

According to the Institute, the ongoing adjustment is more than a normal market cycle. It reflects a broader restructuring of Vietnam’s property sector, with market consolidation serving as an essential step toward greater transparency, stronger fundamentals, and more sustainable development.

Looking ahead, Mr. Tran Minh Hoang, Vice Chairman of VARS, said Vietnam still has substantial room for housing market growth if infrastructure investment continues and capital markets become more developed. In addition to bank lending, he said, the market needs more medium and long-term financing channels to provide developers with sustainable funding sources.

Path to affordability

From a developer’s perspective, Mr. Nguyen Thanh Tam, Regional Director for Region 17 at Vinhomes, said buyers are increasingly seeking comprehensive living environments rather than simply purchasing a home. Future large-scale urban developments, he continued, will need to be built around integrated transport infrastructure, complete service ecosystems, high-quality living environments, and sustainable development principles.

Many industry participants also believe that genuine housing demand and medium to long-term investment will remain the market’s key growth drivers, supported by urbanization, economic expansion, and the emergence of new growth centers. Demand is expected to become increasingly selective, concentrating in suburban areas, satellite cities, and locations where infrastructure has moved from planning to actual construction.

As genuine demand becomes the market’s primary engine, participants said improving the legal framework, accelerating infrastructure development, diversifying housing supply, strengthening long-term capital markets, and enhancing urban planning quality will be critical to rebalancing supply and demand while improving housing affordability.

“The biggest challenge today remains the imbalance between housing supply and actual demand,” said Mr. Vo Huynh Tuan Kiet, Director of the Residential Project Marketing Department at CBRE Vietnam. “Satellite cities can only succeed if they are supported by synchronized transport, technical, and social infrastructure, enabling urban expansion, increasing suitable housing supply, and gradually improving home ownership opportunities.”

Mr. Nguyen Thai Binh, Vice Chairman of VARS, believes that as owner-occupier demand becomes increasingly dominant, practical usability, transparent legal status, sustainable cash flow, operational capability, and accountability across the industry will become the primary benchmarks for determining real estate value.

According to VARS, creating a healthier property market will require coordinated action from all stakeholders. Policymakers should continue improving regulations and market transparency. Developers need to deliver products that better match market demand while maintaining construction quality, project progress, and operational standards. Real estate brokers should strengthen professionalism, adopt data-driven practices, and improve advisory quality.

Ultimately, expanding housing supply that matches household affordability, improving project quality, strengthening legal certainty, accelerating infrastructure investment, and enhancing market transparency will be the key factors supporting the sustainable development of Vietnam’s real estate market in the years ahead.

Việt Nam’s strong H1 sets a solid base for growth, but investment, consumption and external risks will determine how far that momentum carries into the second half of 2026.

HÀ NỘI—Việt Nam enters the second half of 2026 on a strong growth footing, with investment and domestic consumption emerging as important supports as external trade faces greater uncertainty.

Recent analysis by EBC Financial Group and BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, suggests that the economy has room to maintain solid momentum, although inflation, currency and external trade risks could test its resilience.

EBC said the key challenge was no longer simply the pace of growth, but how effectively the resources behind it were being converted into productive capacity.

GDP grew 8.18 per cent in the first half of the year, while industrial production rose by 10.8 per cent and manufacturing and processing expanded by 11.4 per cent. Total social investment increased by 12.9 per cent, with asset accumulation rising by 15.2 per cent.

Registered foreign direct investment (FDI) reached US$34.65 billion in the first half, up 61 per cent year-on-year, while disbursed FDI rose by 11.2 per cent to $13.03 billion.

The gap between committed and realised capital highlights a key challenge for the months ahead: turning investment into factories, machinery, infrastructure and new production capacity.

“Committed capital must flow into factories and production to create economic value. Việt Nam’s growth in the second half of 2026 will increasingly be a story of execution,” said Sana Ur Rehman, senior market analyst at EBC Financial Group, in a note to media.

Việt Nam’s trade figures also point to the cost of rapid expansion.

In the first half, exports rose by 21 per cent to US$266.5 billion, but imports increased much faster, by 33.4 per cent to $283.2 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of nearly $16.7 billion.

The rise in imports was not necessarily negative because much of the increase reflected machinery, components and production materials, according to EBC. The key issue is how quickly these inputs can be converted into output and export revenue.

Rising costs are another pressure point. Consumer prices increased by 4.38 per cent on average in the first half, while credit growth of 7.41 per cent outpaced deposit growth of 5.02 per cent as of late June.

Public investment could provide another source of momentum in the second half. By the end of June, public investment disbursement had reached nearly VNĐ357 trillion, or 35.5 per cent of the annual plan assigned by the Prime Minister.

Faster disbursement could support demand in the short term, while investment in expressways, seaports, logistics, power and industrial infrastructure could lower operating costs and strengthen private-sector productive capacity over the longer term, according to the EBC report.

Domestic consumption offers another source of support.

BMI expects unemployment to remain at about 2.1 per cent in both 2026 and 2027, supporting wage growth. It estimates average household purchasing power in 2026 will be 17.8 per cent higher than in 2019.

Vietnamese households’ real purchasing power is forecast to rise steadily, reaching about 17.8 per cent above 2019 levels in 2026 and continuing to grow through 2030, according to BMI.

Retail sales are already showing strong underlying demand. As of June, real retail sales were 37 per cent above the pre-pandemic level, with real growth averaging 8.2 per cent year-on-year. BMI also expects real household spending to grow 6.5 per cent this year to VNĐ3,873 trillion at 2010 prices.

A strong tourism market is another buffer. Robust tourist arrivals will help cushion households from weaker external demand, giving domestic consumption greater weight in the growth outlook.

Consumer strength, however, faces risks from household debt, đồng depreciation, higher energy costs and global trade disruptions, which could weaken purchasing power and push consumers towards value-oriented goods and services.

BMI forecasts inflation to average 4.7 per cent this year, driven partly by the global energy price shock, before easing to 3.4 per cent in 2027.

The combination creates a delicate balance for the second half. Investment needs financing, consumers need purchasing power, while inflation and exchange-rate pressures need to remain under control.

The broader test, therefore, is not simply whether Việt Nam can maintain high growth, but whether that growth can become more productive and resilient.

“The second half of the year will show how far Việt Nam can turn its current growth momentum into long-term economic capacity," Rehman said.

"When capital flows into projects that raise productivity, improve infrastructure and create greater value, growth can generate more room for the next stage.”

Vietnam’s exports to the Netherlands are projected to grow 18-22% in 2026.

Two-way trade between Vietnam and the Netherlands reached more than $6.7 billion in the first five months of 2026, up nearly 22% year-on-year, according to customs data.

Vietnam’s exports to the Netherlands totaled $6.4 billion, rising 23.2%. The Netherlands has remained Vietnam’s largest European trading partner for several years, marking its third consecutive year in the top position.

Several export categories recorded strong growth during the period. Shipments of toys, sporting goods and parts surged more than 412%, while wood and wooden products increased 114%. Fruit and vegetables rose nearly 48%, and textiles and garments grew 18.6%.

The Vietnam Trade Office in the Netherlands said the figures reflected a trend of European importers shifting orders to Vietnam as they diversify supply sources beyond traditional markets.

Despite continued economic uncertainties, the office expects Vietnam’s exports to the Netherlands to maintain positive momentum in the second half of the year. Dutch consumer confidence improved from -46% in May to -35% in July, the strongest improvement in more than 11 years. Meanwhile, inflation eased from 3.5% in May to 3.2% in July.

The launch of Vietnam Airlines’ direct Hanoi-Amsterdam service in mid-June is also expected to boost tourism, trade and investment ties.

Vietnam’s exports to the Netherlands are projected to grow 18-22% in 2026.