Vietnam’s agriculture, forestry, and fisheries exports are expected to set a new record in 2026, as the sector accelerates market opening, deep processing and value-chain integration to strengthen competitiveness amid rising global uncertainty.

THE HANOI TIMES — Vietnam’s agriculture, forestry and fisheries exports are forecast to climb 5.7% year on year to a record US$74 billion in 2026, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment Phung Duc Tien said on January 6.

Agricultural exports are projected to advance 7.2% to around $40 billion while seafood international sales and forestry and wood-based shipments are expected to expand by 7.6% and 3.6%, reaching $12 billion and $18.8 billion, respectively, Tien told the ministry’s monthly press briefing.

The deputy minister said this year will be crucial for rolling out development goals for the 2026-2030 period.

Against this backdrop, the agriculture and environment sector will maintain an open-market orientation while pushing exports in a more efficient and sustainable direction.

To deliver on the 2026 target, the ministry will pursue a holistic value-chain approach that connects raw material zones with standards, processing, logistics and end markets.

Standardizing production areas in line with concrete market demand will stand out as a top priority.

Planned measures include widening the use of planting-area and aquaculture codes, tightening oversight of input quality and food safety and reinforcing traceability systems.

Production will increasingly align with recognized benchmarks such as GAP, organic and sustainability certifications, helping limit export alerts and reduce rejected consignments.

The ministry will also fast-track deep processing and product diversification by channeling investment into modern processing, preservation and packaging technologies.

Ministerial bodies and local authorities will steer producers toward refined, convenient and ready-to-eat goods, while agricultural by-products will be leveraged to build new value chains in animal feed, bio-based materials and extracts.

Lowering logistics costs remains central to boosting export competitiveness.

Efforts will focus on expanding cold storage capacity, strengthening cold-chain networks and developing regional logistics hubs, alongside streamlining transport routes and raising efficiency at ports and border gates.

Authorities will intensify digitalization of procedures to speed up customs clearance and ease compliance burdens for exporters.

The ministry will continue talks on market access and work to resolve technical barriers to trade as well as sanitary and phytosanitary requirements.

Brand building, geographical indications and market-specific marketing strategies will gain momentum to sharpen the global profile of Vietnamese agricultural products.

The sector will also scale up circular economy practices and low-emission production, which Tien described as a “passport” to premium markets and high-end retail channels.

Providing context for the outlook, Tran Gia Long, Deputy Director of the ministry’s Department of Planning and Finance, said combined exports of agriculture, forestry and fisheries reached $70 billion in 2025, marking a 12% rise from the previous year.

Agricultural products generated $37.3 billion, up 13.7%, while livestock exports climbed 17.4% to $627.8 million. Seafood earnings increased 12.7% to $11.3 billion and forestry products added $18.5 billion, reflecting growth of 6.6%.

Vietnam recorded 10 export categories valued at more than $1 billion, including three that surpassed the $8 billion mark. Wood and wood products topped the list with $17.3 billion, followed by fruits and vegetables at $8.6 billion and coffee at $8.5 billion.

China, the United States and Japan continued to anchor demand, while exports gathered pace across Asia, Europe and Oceania. Africa emerged as a standout market, with shipments jumping by more than 67%.

The sector also delivered a trade surplus of about $20.7 billion, up 16.6%. Officials, however, cautioned that climate change, disease threats, geopolitical tensions and fiercer global competition remain key risks to sustaining export momentum.

Vietnam’s electricity consumption grew more slowly than GDP in 2025, a development experts say reflects improving energy efficiency and a healthier growth model rather than any abnormal divergence.

According to figures released by state utility Vietnam Electricity (EVN), total commercial power sales reached an estimated 287.9 billion kWh in 2025, up 4.9% from the previous year.

That compares with GDP growth of 8.02%, raising questions about a possible mismatch between economic expansion and electricity demand, which have traditionally moved in tandem.

But Ngo Tri Long, former head of the Institute of Price Research under the Ministry of Finance, said the slower growth in power consumption was a positive signal, indicating a shift in Vietnam’s growth structure and more efficient use of energy.

“The fact that electricity growth is lower than GDP growth does not point to an anomaly,” Long was quoted by the government's news portal as saying. “It reflects improvements in growth quality and a gradual move away from an energy-intensive development model, in line with sustainable development goals.”

With electricity sales rising more slowly than GDP, Vietnam’s electricity-to-GDP elasticity in 2025 fell below one, meaning economic output expanded faster than power demand. Long said this was an important indicator of growth quality rather than a supply-demand imbalance in the power sector.

One key factor, he said, was the source of economic growth. In 2025, GDP was driven largely by public investment, particularly large-scale infrastructure projects such as expressways, airports, and major transport works.

"While these projects involve substantial capital spending and contribute significantly to GDP, their electricity consumption during construction is relatively modest compared with energy-intensive manufacturing.

"Electricity use in industrial production still accounts for more than half of Vietnam’s total commercial power consumption. As a result, strong GDP growth led by infrastructure investment does not necessarily translate into a commensurate rise in electricity demand."

Weather conditions also played a role. Long noted that 2025 saw multiple typhoons, floods and prolonged heavy rainfall across parts of northern and central Vietnam, disrupting production and business activities and dampening electricity demand.

At the same time, the year experienced fewer prolonged heatwaves, which in previous years had driven sharp increases in household power use.

Another contributing factor was the rapid expansion of rooftop solar power for self-consumption. More households and businesses have installed rooftop solar systems to meet their own electricity needs, according to Long.

While nationwide data remain incomplete, the power sector estimates self-produced and self-consumed electricity at around 10 billion kWh, equivalent to nearly 4% of total commercial power sales in 2025. This electricity is not recorded in EVN’s sales figures but still supports economic activity.

Over the longer term, Vietnam’s electricity-to-GDP elasticity has been on a steady decline, reflecting improved energy efficiency, the expert noted. The ratio was close to 2 in 2000-2010, indicating heavy reliance on electricity for growth. It fell to 1.86 in 2011-2015, 1.37 in 2016-2020, and about 1.09 in 2021-2024.

By sector, the trend is even clearer. In industry, the largest electricity consumer, elasticity fell to 0.83 in 2021–2024, meaning electricity demand grew more slowly than GDP. Household consumption has shown a similar decline, while services and commerce account for a relatively small share of total electricity demand (8.8-10.5%).

Nguyen Minh Phong, another economist, said the slower rise in electricity use might seem surprising if viewed in isolation, but aligns with a broader trend since 2020.

“This is a positive signal, showing that Vietnam’s economy is becoming less energy-dependent,” Phong told the government's news portal, adding that higher electricity prices also encouraged energy-intensive firms to adopt rooftop solar, upgrade technology, and improve efficiency.

The trend, however, poses new challenges for the power sector, including grid management and ensuring reliable baseload supply as renewable energy accounts for a growing share of generation and weather patterns become more extreme.

Vietnam seeks to further strengthen and deepen the Comprehensive Partnership with Canada in a more substantive and effective manner for mutual benefit.

THE HANOI TIMES— Vietnam and Canada aim to diversify and expand bilateral trade relations to double two-way trade over the next five to ten years.

The view was shared during a meeting between Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and Canada’s Secretary of State for International Development Randeep Sarai on January 6, during the latter’s visit to Vietnam.

At the meeting, both sides welcomed the positive momentum of the Vietnam-Canada Comprehensive Partnership, noting steady progress across all fields underpinned by strong political trust.

Leaders of the two countries have maintained regular high-level engagement at multilateral forums. In 2025, Prime Minister Chinh and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney met twice on the sidelines of the ASEAN 47 Summit and the G20 Summit in South Africa.

Bilateral trade reached $6.35 billion as of September 2025, with Vietnam ranking among Canada’s leading trade partners within ASEAN and the CPTPP framework.

On this occasion, Chinh thanked the Canadian government for providing nearly $2 billion in official development assistance to Vietnam since 1990.

He noted that Vietnam’s GDP growth exceeded 8% in 2025, laying a solid foundation for double-digit growth in the coming years. This growth path is expected to be green, fast and sustainable, driven by science and technology, innovation and digital transformation.

"In this context, Vietnam seeks to further strengthen and deepen the Comprehensive Partnership with Canada in a substantive and effective manner for mutual benefit," said Chinh.

The prime minister called for stronger political and diplomatic ties and more frequent exchanges at all levels. He also suggested studying an upgrade of bilateral relations, strengthening the legal framework, and easing visa procedures to facilitate people-to-people and business exchanges.

Chinh also urged Sarai to continue promoting cooperation with Vietnam, particularly in economic, trade and investment ties, while fully leveraging CPTPP benefits. This includes further market opening, stronger supply chain linkages and cooperation in sectors where Vietnam has strengths, such as electronics and agriculture.

He encouraged closer business connections, support for Vietnam’s participation in global value chains and joint investment in concrete projects of shared interest, while also proposing expanded cooperation in high-quality human resource training and technology transfer.

Chinh called on Canada to increase scholarships for Vietnamese students in priority fields where Canada has strengths and Vietnam has demand, including high technology, digital transformation, peaceful nuclear energy, clean energy, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, environmental protection and climate change and green and high-tech agriculture.

"These areas are seen as critical to Vietnam’s next phase of development," said Chinh.

In addition, he urged stronger cultural and people-to-people exchanges, the organization of Vietnam cultural days in Canada and Canadian cultural days in Vietnam and consideration of direct or connecting flights between the two countries.

He asked Canada to continue supporting the Vietnamese community of about 300,000 people living, studying and working there and to consider recognizing Vietnamese people as a minority group with improved legal status, enabling them to contribute more to Canada and bilateral relations. He also proposed closer coordination at multilateral forums.

Minister Sarai congratulated Vietnam on the 80th anniversary of its first general election to the National Assembly and conveyed the Canadian Prime Minister’s satisfaction with the steady progress of bilateral ties, noting that two-way trade has multiplied since both countries joined the CPTPP.

The minister expressed agreement with Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh’s proposals and said his visit aligns with Canada’s new Indo-Pacific Strategy, under which ASEAN and Vietnam remain top priorities.

He affirmed Canada’s commitment to strengthening cooperation with Vietnam on climate change response and supporting Vietnam’s commitments, while expressing Canada’s desire to diversify and expand trade ties with Vietnam and double bilateral trade over the next five to ten years.

He also underscored plans to deepen cooperation under the CPTPP in 2026, when Vietnam serves as the rotating chair of the CPTPP Commission.

He added that Canada will continue providing ODA to Vietnam and announced a $30 million ODA package during the visit, along with the launch of the book Sustainable Legacy - 30 Years of Development Cooperation Between Canada and Vietnam.