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The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to continue raising interest rates, and Vietnam cannot stand apart from the global interest rate trend, the State Bank of Vietnam’s monetary policy chief Pham Chi Quang said.

Monetary policy prioritizes inflation control

As of September 30, outstanding credit across the banking system stood at about VND20,750 trillion ($798.68 billion), up 11.59% from the end of 2025 and 16.69% from a year earlier, the SBV said. This means bank credit had injected about VND2,200 trillion ($84.68 billion) into the economy in just nine months.

The figure highlights the continued role of bank funding in supporting growth. But rapid credit growth also puts greater pressure on monetary policy, particularly as Vietnam is pursuing double-digit economic growth in 2026.

2026 is the first year of implementing the 14th National Party Congress resolution and the 2026-2030 socio-economic development plan, with a target of double-digit growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability and controlling inflation.

This means credit cannot simply be viewed in terms of "injecting more capital", according to SBV Deputy Governor Pham Thanh Ha. The SBV said it had conducted monetary policy proactively and flexibly during the first nine months, in line with market developments and with a focus on keeping average inflation at around 4.5% in 2026.

The pressure on monetary policy is becoming more apparent in price developments. The National Statistics Office said the consumer price index rose 0.62% in September from the previous month and 5.08% from a year earlier. In the first nine months, CPI rose 4.52%, above the 4.5% target set in the government's Resolution 01/NQ-CP.

"These are the highest increases for September and the nine-month average in many years, showing that the pressure to manage prices and control inflation in the final months of 2026 is very high," Ha stressed.

Pham Chi Quang, director of the SBV's monetary policy department, also noted that the 4.52% increase in CPI in the first nine months showed there was limited room for monetary easing. If credit continues to grow rapidly while cost shocks from energy and global commodities persist, price pressures could intensify.

In other words, the need to control inflation is becoming one of the key constraints on the scope for deeper interest rate cuts.

Domestic rates cannot be separated from global trend

After analyzing the global backdrop, Quang said Vietnam's interest rates could not stand apart from the international monetary policy trend.

On September 16, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds target range to 3.75-4%. Several other major central banks also raised rates in September, increasing pressure on highly open economies such as Vietnam.

The monetary policy department chief said the Fed was likely to continue raising rates and Vietnam could not stand outside the global interest rate trend. Policymakers therefore need to find a balance between interest rates and the exchange rate rather than pursue a single objective, he said.

Domestic interest rate developments also show that the pressure has emerged. As of September 20, the average deposit rate for newly generated transactions stood at 6.38% a year, up 1.15 percentage points from the end of 2025, Deputy Governor Ha said. The SBV said interest rates remained under upward pressure, although the pace of increase had slowed and rates were settling around a new level.

Meanwhile, the SBV has kept its policy rates unchanged and asked credit institutions to stabilize market interest rates, disclose lending rates, and coordinate efforts to lower both deposit and lending rates.

Notably, interest rate pressure is not coming solely from domestic monetary policy. When global rates rise, the interest rate differential between the dong and U.S. dollar, capital flows and exchange rate expectations can all change. Cutting domestic rates too quickly could therefore put pressure on the exchange rate, while keeping rates too high for too long could increase companies' funding costs.

Quang said, however, that the exchange rate had been a positive variable, helping the SBV absorb some external shocks.

The Vietnamese dong has gained about 1.12% against the U.S. dollar, while many other Asian currencies have weakened by 2-7%. The move is notable as the Fed has just raised rates and the dollar has strengthened in global markets.

The resilience of the exchange rate has also been reflected in market developments. The SBV said it had managed the exchange rate flexibly while coordinating monetary policy tools to absorb external shocks, stabilize the foreign exchange market, and help control inflation. The legitimate foreign currency needs of the economy had been fully and promptly met, while the USD/VND exchange rate was managed flexibly in line with market conditions.

SBV to maintain flexible policy in fourth quarter

On monetary policy in the final quarter, Deputy Governor Ha said the global economy would continue to face numerous risks, with geopolitical factors, energy prices and fluctuations in the global economic and financial markets potentially weighing further on Vietnam's economy.

Recent data show that Vietnam continues to face significant pressures given its high degree of economic openness. The SBV will continue to conduct monetary policy proactively and flexibly while coordinating policies to help maintain macroeconomic stability, stabilize markets and support economic growth.

On interest rates, the SBV will closely monitor market developments and adjust policy in line with macroeconomic conditions, inflation developments and policy objectives. It will also take appropriate liquidity-management measures to ensure commercial banks' ability to make payments, while closely monitoring international markets and managing the exchange rate flexibly.

On credit, the SBV will continue to adjust policy in line with macroeconomic developments and the economy's capacity to absorb capital, supporting growth while ensuring the safety of credit institutions.

"Credit institutions are required to ensure safe and effective credit growth, while strictly controlling lending to potentially risky sectors; continue implementing credit programs and packages at the direction of the government and the SBV, ensuring effectiveness and making it easier for people and businesses to access capital," Ha said.

Banks must also continue improving the quality of their operations by strictly complying with regulations, ensuring safety and efficiency, controlling non-performing loans, and limiting the emergence of new risks.

As of the end of August 2026, credit proportion to agriculture, forestry, and fisheries accounted for 6.08 per cent; industry and construction accounted for 23.1 per cent; and trade and services accounted for 70.11 per cent.

HÀ NỘI — Total outstanding loans across the banking system hit nearly VNĐ20.75 quadrillion (US$786 billion) as of September 30 this year significantly supporting Việt Nam’s high GDP growth target, Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) Phạm Thanh Hà said at a press conference on Thursday.

Speaking at the event to reveal the banking sector's performance in the first nine months of 2026 and outline steps for the remaining months of the year, Hà said that the credit increased by 11.59 per cent compared to the end of 2025 and 16.69 per cent year-on-year.

The results, he said, were due to effective measures taken by the SBV and commercial banks amid the difficulties in the global market.

“The SBV has implemented appropriate measures to help control inflation, stabilise the macro-economy, and support economic growth," Hà said.

"Notably, it has promptly directed credit institutions to implement credit solutions for specific sectors and industries, thereby facilitating access to credit for businesses and the public, especially large-scale and key projects.”

Nguyễn Xuân Bắc, deputy director of the SBV’s Credit Department, reported that bank credit structure in the first three quarters aligned with the economic sector structure.

“Credit capital continued to be channeled into production, business, and priority sectors," Bắc said.

"As of the end of August 2026, credit proportion to agriculture, forestry, and fisheries accounted for 6.08 per cent; industry and construction accounted for 23.1 per cent; and trade and services accounted for 70.11 per cent.”

“Priority sectors designated by the Government and the Prime Minister accounted for a significant share, such as agriculture and rural development at approximately 22 per cent; or sectors that gained high growth rates, such as exports with 33.32 per cent and high-tech enterprises with 39.62 per cent,” Bắc added.

Regarding interest rates, Hà said that the SBV continued to maintain benchmark interest rates, creating favourable conditions for credit institutions to access capital from the SBV at low costs, enabling them to support the economy.

The average interest rate for new deposits as of September 20 this year stood at 6.38 per cent per annum, an increase of 1.15 percentage points compared to the end of 2025.

Despite the rise, Hà noted that, the rising pace is slowing, and interest rate levels are essentially stabilising around a new baseline.

According to Phạm Chí Quang, director of the SBV’s Monetary Department, although the exchange rate and foreign exchange market have been under pressure from recent unpredictable global developments, the SBV managed the exchange rate flexibly, helping to absorb external shocks.

Effective coordination between monetary policy tools helped stabilise the foreign exchange market, contributing to macro-economic stability and inflation control. As a result, the foreign exchange market is operating smoothly, the legitimate foreign currency needs of the economy are being fully and promptly met, and the USD-VNĐ exchange rate is fluctuating flexibly, in accordance with market conditions, Quang said.

In the remaining months of the year, Hà said that the SBV will continue to flexibly manage monetary policy, closely coordinating with fiscal policy and other macro-economic measures to control inflation, contribute to macro-economic stability and support sustainable economic growth.

Interest rates will be managed in line with market developments, macro-economic conditions, inflation and monetary policy objectives. The central bank will also continue to closely monitor developments in deposit and lending interest rates for the market and for each credit institution.

"The SBV will continue to closely monitor international and domestic market developments," Hà added.

"It will manage exchange rates flexibly, in accordance with market conditions, and coordinate with other monetary policy tools to stabilise the foreign exchange market, contributing to macro-economic stability, controlling inflation and supporting economic growth."

Domestic individual investors overwhelming the market with around 14 million accounts.

The total number of securities trading accounts in Vietnam reached over 14.13 million as of September 30, 2026, an increase of 1.76% from the end of August, according to market data.

Domestic individual investors accounted for 244,505 of the new accounts, representing almost the entire monthly increase. By comparison, the number of domestic institutional accounts rose by just 180.

The figures show that the continued expansion of Vietnam’s investor base is being driven overwhelmingly by domestic retail investors rather than institutions. Nearly 245,000 accounts were added in September, with domestic accounts accounting for more than 99.8% of the increase.

By the end of September, domestic individual investors held around 14 million accounts, accounting for approximately 99.48% of all domestic investor accounts and continuing to represent the overwhelming majority of market participants, in terms of account numbers.

Foreign investors recorded a much smaller increase. Their total number of securities accounts rose by only 264 during September to 52,897.

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