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Vietnam's 2025 e-commerce growth to hit 25.5%, driven by year-end shopping season

Vietnam's 2025 e-commerce growth to hit 25.5%, driven by year-end shopping season

Vietnam’s e-commerce market is on a record-breaking trajectory, with growth outpacing forecasts and prompting the Ministry of Industry and Trade to raise its 2025 target to 25.5%.

THE HANOI TIMES — The Vietnamese e-commerce market is projected to grow 25.5% in 2025 as consumption peaks during the year-end shopping season, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
The forecast is higher than the initial growth target of 20%-22% for this year. In January-August, the sector rose 27%, beating the projection by seven percentage points.

During July-September, e-commerce increased 27.7% year-on-year, nearly 6% higher than the original scenario. The ministry expects momentum to accelerate further in the fourth quarter, reaching 33.7%.

December alone could post a record 35%, driven by year-end consumption campaigns.

These projections reflect past performance and seasonal demand.

According to YouNet ECI, the four leading platforms, including Shopee, TikTok Shop, Lazada, and Tiki, generated a total value of market sales value of VND222 trillion (US$8.4 billion) in the first half of 2025, up 23% year-on-year, with more than 1.9 billion items sold by nearly 580,000 sellers.

YouNet ECI and YouNet Media forecast that Vietnam’s e-commerce market will sustain a compound annual growth of 35% through 2028, fueled by higher spending per order and the rise of “shoppertainment,” which combines shopping with entertainment.

According to the ministry, despite global challenges, Vietnam’s e-commerce has maintained steady annual growth of 18%-25%. The B2C market expanded 25% in 2023, reaching $20.5 billion, and surpassed $25 billion in 2024.

The ministry estimated that e-commerce accounts for two-thirds of the country’s digital economy value, placing Vietnam among the world’s 10 fastest-growing e-commerce markets.

On average, Vietnamese consumers shop online four times a month, underscoring the vast potential of a nearly 100-million-strong market alongside regional giants like China and India.

Source: Phi Nhat

Photo: Quynh Lien/The Hanoi Times

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The airport, in Bac Ninh Province 40 kilometers from Hanoi, will now handle 50 million passengers and 2.5 million tons of cargo a year by 2050 rather than the original 15 million and 1.6 million tons, according to a report by The State Appraisal Council.

Construction had begun in December last year, and the upgrades were approved recently by the Ministry of Construction.

It is envisioned as the northern region’s aviation gateway for passenger and cargo transport, and is being built by property developer Masterise Group.

It will have four runways spaced well apart to allow independent operations.

It will be built to 4F standards, meaning it can accommodate large aircraft such as Boeing 777 and Airbus A330.

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Vietnam, China accelerate ACFTA 3.0 signing process

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Vietnam's key export products to China include agricultural produce (rice, coffee, cashews, fruits), seafood, electronic components, textiles, rubber, and crude oil.

Vietnam is finalizing its domestic procedures to proceed with signing the Protocol to upgrade the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA 3.0) as planned. This significant commitment marks a new step forward in bilateral economic relations, which have been elevated to a strategic level with the establishment of the "Vietnam-China Community with a Shared Future."

On the sidelines of the 47th ASEAN Summit in Malaysia, Vietnamese Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien held a bilateral meeting with Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao on October 27.

During the meeting, the two ministers agreed that amidst complex developments in the regional and global economy, both sides need to strengthen and promote cooperation to create practical value for their citizens and businesses. The upgrade of ACFTA to version 3.0 will not only expand the scope of tariff preferences but also create a more favorable legal framework for trade in services, investment, and cooperation in new areas such as the digital economy and green transformation.

In recent years, China has affirmed its position as Vietnam's most important trading partner. In 2024, bilateral trade turnover reached $205.2 billion, setting a new record for bilateral commerce. This figure not only reflects the immense scale of trade but also highlights the high complementarity in the commodity structure between the two economies.

Data from the Vietnam Trade Office in China shows that strong growth momentum has been maintained in 2025. Export turnover to the Chinese market for the first 8 months recorded a 9.2% increase, 2.1 percentage points higher than the 7-month figure.

Vietnam's key export products to China include agricultural produce (rice, coffee, cashews, fruits), seafood, electronic components, textiles, rubber, and crude oil. Particularly, products such as durian, dragon fruit, mango, and passion fruit not only have a firm foothold but also recorded strong growth in the final months of 2025.

Conversely, Vietnam imports machinery, industrial equipment, raw materials for production, consumer goods, and electronic components from China.

High-Tech FDI boosts Vietnam's global value chain standing

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Vietnam is targeting double-digit growth in the 2026–2030 period, with high-tech FDI expected to be one of the main drivers.

From an agricultural economy, Vietnam has undergone a powerful transformation to become a competitive industrial manufacturing hub in the region.

During this process, hi-tech FDI has played a pivotal role, with the presence of "eagles" like Samsung, LG, Intel, and Honda, among others.

These corporations have not only brought in capital and advanced technology but also contributed to reshaping industrial capabilities, training high-quality human resources, and paving the way for Vietnam to integrate more deeply into global value chains.

After 17 years of its operations in Vietnam, from an initial investment of $670 million in 2008, Samsung has now invested over $23.2 billion, running 6 factories and 1 research and development (R&D) center, making Vietnam the largest mobile phone production base outside of South Korea.

Other major names like LG, Intel, and Honda have also chosen Vietnam as a strategic production hub, maintaining their commitment for several decades.

According to data from 2015–2024, the processing and manufacturing industry has consistently led in FDI attraction, accounting for 50–80% of total registered capital. Many multi-billion dollar projects in electronics, semiconductors, renewable energy, and high technology have been flowing into Vietnam, contributing to elevating the nation's position on the global technology map.

According to Professor Nguyen Mai, a leading expert on foreign investment, "The presence of 'big eagles' like Samsung has created a strong spillover effect, attracting more high-tech investors and forming increasingly tight linked value chains in Vietnam."

However, experts also warn that to attract more strategic FDI projects, Vietnam needs to continue to significantly improve its investment environment.

This includes three key issues: first, upgrading technical and logistics infrastructure; second, developing high-quality human resources; and third, reforming investment incentive policies, especially for new sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence (AI), and clean energy.

Vietnam is targeting double-digit growth in the 2026–2030 period, with high-tech FDI expected to be one of the main drivers.

According to experts, high technology, especially in strategic sectors, has a strong ripple effect. Attracting it first to learn, cooperate, and develop internal capabilities is a long-term approach that will help Vietnam not just be a manufacturing location but also a regional innovation hub.

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